What Will the Weather Be Like on Thanksgiving in Iowa and Surrounding States This Year?

November weather in the Tri-States is often times unpredictable. Some years it's warm enough for a picnic and others you get snow on Halloween (check that one off for 2023). That being said we could also be in for some snow the week of Thanksgiving. Speaking of the study of weather…

According to the National Weather Service, our national Meteorologists say it could be pretty wet, with the tri-state area showing a plus-50% chance in precipitation. If cold weather and winds influence the area, we could see snow and ice. Your basic meteorologist is a physical scientist who observes, studies, and forecasts the weather.

Like our friends at NOAA:

“Probabilities for above average rainfall are enhanced across Texas and north-eastward to the Midwest, as well as across Florida. Models robustly agree on above average rainfall in the Pacific Northwest. A majority of model guidance indicates below average rainfall is expected for New England and Ohio. In Alaska, the northern tier of the state is forecast with above average rainfall while the southern tier is forecast with below average rainfall.”

-National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center

In general, our local meteorologists do a great job of forecasting weather days in advance for us to prepare accordingly. However, they don't usually focus on long-range forecasts. In that case, a lot of people turn to the Farmer's Almanac for weather guidance, especially when planning around the holiday season.

Do people actually believe the Farmer's Almanac forecast?

That’s the age-old question that causes debate among weather enthusiasts and skeptics. Studies of the almanac's accuracy have been done showing it to be around 50% right, or about as good as random chance.

How do they come up with the extended forecast at The Farmer's Almanac?

The Farmers’ Almanac weather predictions are based on a formula originally developed in 1818 by the almanac’s foundering editor, David Young. Various methods have been used to make the weather predictions, they include studying sunspot cycles, solar activity, tidal forces, the reversal of winds in the stratosphere over the equator, position of the planets, and the influence the Moon.

In addition to studying natural cycles, meteorologists also use the technique of comparing past weather patterns to current conditions to forecast future weather. This approach, known as analog forecasting, provides valuable insights into potential weather events. To safeguard their weather formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac keep its weather prognosticator – Caleb Weatherbee- identity and the exact formula as brand secrets.

For those of you wondering, the Caleb Weatherbee name is actually a pseudonym that has been passed down through generations of Almanac predictors. It’s used to conceal the true identity of the men and women behind the predictions. In fact, the only person who knows the exact formula for the Farmers' Almanac weather predictions is “Caleb Weatherbee.”

How’s our Midwest weather look for Turkey Day?

The Farmers' Almanac groups the “Heartland” area of the Midwest with our Tri-State section of Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin, along with Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, and the southern most parts of Minnesota and South Dakota. In the long-range forecast for the first parts of the Thanksgiving holiday. November 15^th to 18^th will feature isolated showers and be chilly. Nov 19^th to the 30^th will provide periods of rain and snow. It will be cold to Northern areas. Showers will be milder in Southern areas. November’s average temperature is predicted at around 42°. That’s 3° below average in the North and 1° above in the South.

According to the Farmer’s Almanac, we won’t be very dry this holiday season, and hopefully your turkey isn’t either.